State economy seen stabilizing in 2010 before recovering in 2011

First Hawaiian economic adviser Leroy Laney sees uptick in visitor arrivals next year

By Allison Schaefers

POSTED: 11:34 a.m. HST, Nov 05, 2009

More people will lose jobs and the rate of inflation and unemployment will move up next year; however, there will be small gains in visitor arrivals and real personal income as the economy stabilizes.

That was the opinion of First Hawaiian Bank economic adviser Leroy Laney, who delivered the bank's 40th annual business outlook today at Dole Cannery Ballroom.

Despite an improving economic picture at the U.S. national level and tenuous recovery in Japan,  Laney said, "next year may be a year of stabilization in the Hawaii economy," he said. "It will likely be 2011 before sustained economic recovery."

In a nutshell, Laney's 2010 forecast said:

>> Jobs will fall -0.5 percent

>> Unemployment will rise 7.5 percent

>> Inflation will grow 1 percent

>> Visitor arrivals will grow 1.7 percent

>> Real personal income will grow 0.5 percent