UFC 94
Who: B.J. Penn (13-4-1) vs. Georges St-Pierre (17-2) When: 5 p.m. (Hawaii time) Saturday, January 31, 2009 Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas. TV: PPV |
Standup
This will probably be where the fight is decided. Both men have greatly improved their striking games since the first fight. St-Pierre overwhelmed Jon Fitch in their last fight, bloodying him up, although he couldn't finish him. Penn did the same thing in his last fight against Sean Sherk, outboxing his opponent for 15 minutes before finishing him with a knee and strikes at the end of the third round. St-Pierre is more of a ground-and-pound guy. while Penn has more knockouts on his feet, both with punches and knees.
Advantage: Penn
Wrestling
St-Pierre won the first fight largely because of his ability to take Penn down in the second and third rounds. Penn secured one takedown late, but this is St-Pierre's bread and butter. Penn's strength is more about neutralizing opponents' takedowns, and even if St-Pierre gets him to the ground, the challenge will be doing damage from Penn's guard.
Advantage: St-Pierre
Ground control
Once St-Pierre has people down, his ground-and-pound skills are some of the best in all of mixed martial arts. The intrigue from the first fight between the two was Penn's ability to deflect punishment on the canvas with St-Pierre in his guard. Since then, St-Pierre has controlled and dominated Fitch, Matt Hughes and Matt Serra in their rematch. Josh Koscheck, another top-notch wrestler, also couldn't solve St-Pierre. Penn doesn't stay down for long, even against bigger foes. With Penn on top, he has a much better chance to go for submissions as five of his last eight wins have come by tap out. St-Pierre has only subbed opponents four times in 17 wins, making Penn's ability to finish foes with an array of submissions being the difference here.
Advantage: Penn
Conditioning
This has been the ultimate thorn in Penn's side in the past, but since moving back down to the lightweight division and coaching on the Ultimate Fighter reality show, Penn has looked fine in three straight wins. However, none of them have gone past the third round, and all title fights are five 5-minute rounds. St-Pierre looked just as good in the 25th minute as he did in the first minute of his beatdown against Jon Fitch in his last fight. Penn hasn't fought a full 25 minutes in a fight since his draw with Caol Uno nearly six years ago, which is also the last time he battled past the 15-minute mark. He's also only had three fights in the last 15 months while St-Pierre is fighting for the sixth time in 20 months.
Advantage: St-Pierre
Intangibles
Other than the second Hughes fight, in which Penn claims he injured his ribs, he has never been stopped by TKO and he has never been submitted. St-Pierre was submitted by Hughes in their first fight, but his only other loss came on a punch early in the first fight against Matt Serra. Neither fighter has much of a weakness, which makes this fight so tough to call. At the end of the day, it may come down to the simple fact that the fight takes place in St-Pierre's natural weight class, while Penn is making the 15-pound jump. That's the reason St-Pierre enters the fight as a slight favorite. Both Hawaii and Canada are expected to travel to Vegas in huge numbers, so the crowd is likely to be split down the middle.
Advantage: Even
Georges "Rush" St.-Pierre
» Title: UFC Welterweight Champion » Record: 17-2 (11-2 in UFC) » Age: 27 » Height: 5-10 » Weight: 170 » Fighting out of: Montreal » Strengths: Versatile, great takedowns, conditioning |
B.J. "The Prodigy" Penn
» Title: UFC Lightweight Champion » Record: 13-4-1 (9-3-1 in UFC) » Age: 30 » Height: 5-9 » Weight: 155-170 » Fighting out of: Hilo » Strengths: Striking, jiu-jitsu
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